The border region around En Amenas has been the scene of both criminal and AQIM-related activity for quite some time. In my day job, I call this activity microinstability: very select regions or localities in a country that experience extended periods of persistent threat activity. Algeria has a perfect example. Despite relatively stable public and social life (for a dictatorship) in most of the country, Tizi Ouzou remains one of the most dangerous localities in North Africa. In order to identify these patches of hell, an analyst needs to persistently study local activity, such as local crime and CT incident reporting. There's nothing innovative about the methods of research and analysis here. Rather, the innovation is how the analyst employs the information.
The few of my (few) readers around this long weekend might appreciate this list of terrorism and CT incidents for Illizi Province, Algeria for the year 2011. I'll get to 2012 later today or tomorrow.
Terrorism and Counterterrorism
Activity Reported in Illizi Province, Algeria for 2011
12 March |
2 AQIM members killed and 2 detained after they attempted |
24 March |
An AQIM suspect wearing a suicide belt was killed at the |
04 April |
1 AQIM suspect at the Debdab border as he tried to |
22 April |
Three AQIM killed at the Libyan border, and ammunition |
20 June |
2 AQIM suspects killed, 2 arrested in Debdab |
06 September |
Algerian security forces initiated an operation to |
12 September |
A group called Movement of the Sons of Algeria for Islamic |
13 September |
El-Khabar reported that energy companies operating in |
18 September |
Algerian security forces captured 2 AQIM suspects. Local |
18 September |
Forces recovered a suspected AQIM cache of explosives |
On 09 October |
2 AQIM suspects killed during a shootout with Algerian |
08 November |
35 AQIM suspects smuggling small arms across the |
08 November |
2 AQIM suspects killed in Djanet |
14 November |
2 AQIM suspects killed and 5 arrested near the Libyan |
12 December |
8 AQIM suspects were captured in Djanet, allegedly |
25 December |
5 AQIM suspects killed in a shootout with local Algerian |