In his latest piece for PBS Need to Know, ASP Fellow Joshua Foust discusses the conflict in Syria and tries to make sense of what is happening from a strategic perspective.  Foust argues that while influential thinkers have called for direct intervention in the conflict or  for arming Syrian rebels, the U.S. has had mixed results in choosing its allies in such situations.  That the U.S. cannot be entirely sure of what the rebels stand for further complicates our understanding of the situation and what outcomes are to be expected.

“Sadly, revolutions like this are rarely easy to predict, and often the rebels – and the regime – find ways of surprising observers (like how some openly compare themselves to the Russian revolutionaries of 1917). An Egypt-style military regime might be the most likely outcome for a post-Assad Syria, but it would hardly be the peaceful, democratic government so many boosters of the rebellion believe is on the horizon.”

Read Joshua’s full article here.