[ by Charles Cameron – omnium gatherum — USMC predicting 2045 — is 2031 The End? — Saudis. friend or foe? ]
Splitting hairs, atoms, black swans?
I’m thinking of Lise Meitner as I view the Marine Corps’ ambitiously titled Security Environment Forecast 2030-2045. Who would have thought in 1919 that Hahn, Meitner and Strassmann in 1935 would begin a program that resulted in 1939 in her 1939 paper Disintegration of Uranium by Neutrons: A New Type of Nuclear Reaction — which in turn led to Moe Berg‘s attending a lecture by Heisenberg, the Trinity test at Alamagordo, and Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
And yet the period from 1919 (Treaty of Versailles) to 1939 (fission theorized) is only 20 years, and from 1919 to 1945 (nuclear warfare) is 26 years — equivalents, respectively, to the periods from 2015 (today) to 2035 (a third of the way into the USMC’s period of prediction) and 2041 (still within the UMSC timeline).
In view of this comparison, is the MCSEF’s assertion plausible?
Analysis of patterns and trends in seven categories, including demographics, technology, resource competition, environmental stresses, globalization, governance, and urban littorals, enables projection 15 to 30 years into the future of four plausible world futures: a baseline future, two alternative futures, and a “preferred” future.
— and we haven’t even considered how much influence von Neumann and Turing would have by 1945, as understood in 2019..
2031 will be the End of Days:
— for the record, yes, because Christ was crucified in 31 CE:
— at least according to the video Passage through the Veil of Time.
As a sidenote, the USMC Futures Directorate either hasn’t run across this date-setting (likely) or (most improbable) dismisses it as lacking sound reasoning or evidence. Ha!
Saudi Arabia — on or off the hook?
Seattle Times, Judge drops Saudi Arabia from Sept. 11 lawsuit The Independent, The evil empire of Saudi Arabia is the West’s real enemy