[ by Charles Cameron — requesting suggestions re “second order nuclear effects” from Israel & the Saudis ]
I’ve been watching one aspect of developing current events closely — Islamic apocalyptic jihad, for short — and claim no special expertise in many other realms, but on the contrary, consider myself too inexpert even to hazard much in the way of commentary. Knowing what I know about what I know, and having seen how often the media and punditry get it wrong, I am deeply suspicious of anything I might tend to think on the basis of media readings in other areas.
So: I am ignorant about the Iranian nuclear deal.
I tend to read Cheryl Rofer for insight into the tecnhical nuclear issues, and Tim Furnish on Iranian Mahdism as it might or might not intersect with the desire for nukes. But that’s about the limit for me.
So: here’s what nags away at me, in the words of a commenter at ChicagoBoyz:
the end result might not be nuclear weapons [for Iran] .. It might be a nuclear preemptive strike by Israel and Saudi Arabia
I’m ignorant. Does the deal, or any other diplomatic venture, address the issue of consequences other than those the deal itself provides for Iran and for her co-signers? What will the Israelis, what will the Saudis in fact do?
With Putin already rattling implicitly nuclear sabres, do we now have a second potential nuclear front, a threat coming not “from” Iran but “at” it?
Please set me straight, from left, from right, from military and intelligence perspectives, any which way you can.
Second order effects are always important and often overlooked. When they’re nuclear, that could be highly problematic, not to say volcanic.